Fresh figures from Interest.co.nz show that the lower-quartile selling price — basically the most affordable end of the market — is sitting at $590,000 (down $80 k from the 2021 peak).

If you’re buying your first home with a 10 percent deposit, your mortgage now eats up about one-third of your combined take-home pay. That’s the most comfortable it’s been since mid-2021, with weekly repayments of roughly $728, saving around $200 a week compared with late 2023.

Where You Can Actually Afford to Buy

With a 10 percent deposit, most regions across Aotearoa are now considered affordable — except for the usual suspects:

• Auckland City (though Waitākere, Franklin and Papakura are within reach)
  
• Tauranga
  
• Queenstown
  

And if you can stretch to a 20 percent deposit, Queenstown’s the only area still out of bounds for the typical first-home couple.

Saving the Deposit: Still the Hard Part

Lower repayments are great — but getting that first deposit together remains the biggest hurdle. A 10 percent deposit on the lower-quartile home now means finding around $59,000.

The good news? If you’re saving 20 percent of your combined income, it would now take about 2½ years instead of nearly 4.

Falling Rates Are Making All the Difference

Average two-year fixed mortgage rates have dropped to 4.72 percent, down from 7 percent last year — the lowest we’ve seen since 2022.

Could We See Rates Below 4 Percent?

• Optimists (like Squirrel’s David Cunningham) think one-year fixed loans could sneak in at 3.99 percent early next year if the OCR keeps falling.

   

• Cautious types (like Infometrics’ Gareth Kiernan) believe we’ll need an OCR closer to 2 percent before banks go that low — and warn rates could start edging back up by late 2026.

   

Incomes Are Slowly Catching Up

Typical first-home couples (both working full time, mid-20s) now take home about $2,208 a week after tax — around 4 percent more than a year ago. Every little bit helps when it comes to meeting repayments.

What It Means for You

If you’re buying your first home: The next six months look like the best window in years, especially around Canterbury, Wellington and regional hubs outside the main centres.

If you already own: When your loan comes up for refixing, you could see a big drop in weekly payments.

For the market overall: Lower rates might tempt more buyers back in — though limited housing supply should help keep prices stable rather than driving them up too fast.

Spotlight on Canterbury & Christchurch

Christchurch and the wider Canterbury region continue to offer some of the most balanced conditions in NZ. With median prices around $590,000 and steady employment across construction and services, it’s a sweet spot for both first-home buyers and investors.

Nearby areas like Selwyn and Waimakariri are also drawing attention — affordable new builds, short commutes, and great amenities make them hard to beat.

Looking Ahead

Economists expect the OCR to fall to 2.25 percent by early 2026, which could push one-year fixed rates near 4 percent.

But this dip probably won’t last forever — rates may start rising again late next year. So if you’re planning to buy or refinance, now’s the time to line up your ducks and lock in something good.

Canterbury Legal: In Your Corner

Buying a home isn’t just a financial decision — it’s a life moment. Our property law team helps first-home buyers, investors and homeowners navigate contracts, KiwiSaver withdrawals, mortgage terms and settlement paperwork.

We’re based in Christchurch, proud to serve clients right across Canterbury. Whether you’re signing your first sale and purchase agreement or refinancing for a better deal, we’ll make sure every detail’s legally sound and stress-free.

We’re in your corner.